Climate catastrophes might be foreseen

13 February 2009

The University of Copenhagen hosts The International Scientific Congress on Climate Change on 10-12 March in Copenhagen. This is the first in a row of climate research stories that will be released up to and presented at the conference.

There may indeed be a quiet before the storm, when it comes to drastic changes in the climate system shows new research from the Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group at Wageningen University, Holland.

”We have found, that abrupt climate change in the past have been preceded by a period, where the natural fluctuations of the climate slow down,” says Marten Scheffer, leader of the research group.

When the group first presented their results in September in the journal “Proceedings of The National Academy of Sciences” (PNAS), they were cautious about linking their newfound understanding of ancient climate change to the climate changes we are experiencing today. The changes today are happening so fast, that predictions about the response of relatively slow components of the climate system are hard to make. On the other hand, new prospects have arisen since, explains Marten Scheffer.
 

“This is ongoing work, and I believe we now see potential for assessing the risk of triggering abrupt changes – crossing the so called tipping points – at least in smaller parts of the global climate system. One area where our analysis shows promise is droughts and desertification”, he says.

Abrupt and irreversible changes – called tipping points – in the climate system is one of the most highly debated issues at the congress and in climate science generally. The fear of the Earth's climate or smaller parts of it abruptly changing dramatically has been nourished in the last couple of years. A number of research papers has documented, that abrupt changes has happened many times before and seems to be a part of the nature of the climate and Earth systems. When greenhouse gas emissions are forcing the climate so rapidly, as we see now, the risk of crossing the thresholds of the tipping points is considered substantial. And once we have crossed the line, there is no turning back.

About the congress

The research will be presented in more detail at the IARU International Scientific Congress on Climate Change, taking place in Copenhagen 10 – 12 March. The congress will gather thousands of the worlds climate researchers to deliver an update on our knowledge on climate change and how to handle the risks and opportunities that comes from it. The results will be presented to the world leaders as they gather later this year in Copenhagen to discuss a new global deal on how to fight climate change at the U.N. Climate Change Conference - COP15.

The International Scientific Congress on Climate Change is organized by International Alliance of Research Universities (IARU): Australian National University; ETH Zürich; National University of Singapore; Peking University; University of California, Berkeley; University of Cambridge; University of Copenhagen; University of Oxford; University of Tokyo; Yale University.